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Stubborn Swans good value to cause another Old Trafford upset

| 11.01.2014

The return of Adnan Januzaj and Michael Carrick will strengthen Manchester United this evening against Swansea but they should still be backed against for one main reason; they aren’t very good at home.

Swansea are 5/1 to take advantage.

David Moyes may have won the Manager of the Month award for December, but the Scot’s side currently languish in seventh place – nine points off the summit.

Their problems haven’t been away from Manchester – only Spurs and Arsenal have won more matches on their travels – but at Old Trafford, where they have lost four matches.

That number is only one less than their total number of defeats during last season’s title-winning season and the expectation of 60,000 fans weighed heavily when these two clubs last met.

Bet on Swansea to win at 5/1

Swansea won 2-1 in the FA Cup thanks to goals from Wayne Routledge and Wilfried Bony and the first goal was a good example of the Red Devils’ defensive woes.

Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans were caught short by a direct ball through the middle and their lack of pace has been exposed several times this season.

Patrice Evra is likely to come back into the team, but the Frenchman’s heart isn’t in defending anymore and he doesn’t possess the pace to paper over the cracks any more.

Swansea deserved their famous FA Cup victory of last week, and Michael Laudrup’s side are well-organised and will learn from their mistakes.

They gave Alex Buttner too much time on the left to swing in dangerous crosses (including for the home sides’s goal) but should remedy that against Evra, and Old Trafford just doesn’t have the fear factor about it anymore.

West Brom, Everton, Newcastle and Tottenham are the four teams to have taken three points home from Manchester this season – none of whom are in the top four – and Swansea look the bet, with the 3/1 about the visitors draw-no-bet also making appeal.

Bet on Wilfried Bony to score anytime at 10/3

However make no bones about it, the Old Trafford crowd will expect a win, especially as Swansea have failed to win in their last five away games in the Premier League.

Laudrup’s side are 12th in the league at present, just four points above the relegation places, and will be keen not to get dragged into a dogfight.

Whilst their away form is poor in terms of number of points gained, their performances have not been.

They have only been beaten by two or more goals on two occasions (one being at Man City) and, although they still miss star player Michu, Wilfried Bony’s goal record speaks for itself.

The Ivorian has 13 goals in all competitons, four of which have come on the road, and he is 10/3 to score at any time, as he did when notching the winner here last week.

Bet on Adnan Januzaj to score first at 7/1

Meanwhile, if Robin Van Persie is still absent for their opponents – joining Wayne Rooney as unavailable, then Javier Hernandez is the main focal point going forward.

The Mexican is just 4/1 to score first, but only has five to his name this season.

Danny Welbeck and Shinji Kagawa both played too deep in their FA cup clash and Adnan Janujaz may be a more likely goalscorer.

United rely on the 18-year-old far too much when he plays, but all three of his goals this season have come against teams in the bottom half of the table; he’s 7/1 to open the scoring.

Recommended bets

Swansea draw no bet at 3/1



Nic Doggett