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Italy v Spain betting tips: Spain seek revenge in Nations League

| 03.10.2021
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Preview and odds for Wednesday’s Nations League clash

The Nations League is reaching its climax and the first semi-final takes place on Wednesday so we have looked at the odds for some Italy v Spain betting tips.

Portugal beat the Netherlands two years ago in the inaugural Nations League final and this clash is a repeat of the Euro 2020 semi-final which Italy won on penalties, while Belgium face France in the second semi-final on Thursday.

Wednesday’s match, which takes place at the San Siro in Milan, is live on Sky Sports and kicks off at 7.45pm.

Italy v Spain match odds

Italy are on a 37-match unbeaten run. They won the European Championship final, beating England 3-2 on penalties, and have subsequently drawn two and won one of their three World Cup qualifiers.

They reached the European Championship final by defeating Spain 4-2 on penalties after the semi-final ended 1-1 after extra time.

Roberto Mancini’s Italy side are different from previous incarnations. They attack and defend as a unit, and also employ a high press, which is hard to imagine an Italian side from the past doing. As such, they are versatile in the way they play.

It has yielded some big results and they are 6/5 favourites to beat Spain and progress to the final, where they will play the winner of Thursday’s semi-final between Belgium and France.

Italy won three and drew three of their Group A1 games to reach the semi-final, while Spain won three, drew two and lost one of their six games. Their thumping 6-0 win over Germany signalled that Luis Enrique’s young side were re-emerging as a force to be reckoned with.

They subsequently did better than many expected in reaching the semi-finals of the European Championship and are 21/10 to win this semi-final.

Jorginho, Italy, Italy v Spain betting tips

Italy v Spain head-to-head

This is a re-run of the European Championship final in 2012 when Spain were at their peak and cruised to a stunning 4-0 victory in Kiev.

The two teams have met seven times since then and there have been four draws, with this match 19/10 to go to extra time in Italy v Spain betting tips.

The most recent meeting saw Federico Chiesa’s second-half strike cancelled out by Alvaro Morata in the Euro 2020 semi at Wembley, only for the Italians to win on penalties.

Both sides scored in three of the last eight meetings and it is 4/5 that one or other fails to score this time.

Goals have been at a premium in recent meetings. There have been three or more goals scored in just three of the last 13 meetings, and it is 6/5 that over 2.5 total goals will be scored on this occasion.

Italy v Spain team news

Italy have been forced into a change, bringing in Moise Kean from Juventus to replace Lazio hitman Ciro Immobile.

Roma full-back Leonardo Spinazzola is still ruled out with an Achilles injury and expects to return next month.

Spain have called up Brais Mendez and Bryan Gil to replace injured Pedri and Marcos Llorente, and there is also a recall for Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso after a three-year absence. He will join Blues teammate César Azpilicueta, who has been a regular in Enrique’s side.

Italy v Spain key battles

Italy’s long unbeaten run, which stretches back to September 2018, could be under threat.

Spinazzola was one of Italy’s key players in the first part of Euro 2020 before injury and Italy are a more creative side when he is in their back four.

Should they struggle, Spain have plenty of marksmen, such as Manchester City’s Ferran Torres, who will look to take advantage and Enrique’s side are 1/2 to win or draw the game on the Double Chance market and 23/20 to win either half in Italy v Spain betting tips.

View the latest Nations League odds

All odds and markets correct as of date of publication

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Author

Simon Milham